The role of regional level politics on lebanese foreign policy since the assasination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005

The role of regional level politics on Lebanese foreign policy since the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005

Post Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri 's assassination on February 14 , 2005 , the repercussions have been felt beyond Lebanese bs . For this was not an internal Lebanese matter . As the United Nation 's (UN fact finding report has found out there were external forces involved in liquidating the former prime minister . However , the assignation assumes significance for the growing democracy movement in Lebanon , the Syrian influence , Iran 's nuclear stand-off with the

West and the growth of Hamas in the region

An explosion in downtown Beirut had earlier killed twenty persons , among them the former Prime Minister , Rafik Hariri . The UN sent a fact finding team to look into the circumstances and consequences of the assassination . The scope of the investigation involved talking to the Lebanese government , the chief opposition parties , members of the public , understanding the investigation procedure of the governments attempt to unravel the mystery behind the assassination and analyze the samples from the crime scene . The fact finding report found out that regional politics played a major role in the assassination . The exact cause and role of the assassins was not established . However , what was established beyond doubt was the assassination took place in a political and security context marked by an acute polarization around the Syrian influence in Lebanon and a failure of the Lebanese State to provide adequate protection for its citizens . The report also states that the Lebanese authorities did not conduct the investigation as per International acceptable standards and that even if the authorities were sincere in their investigations they lacked the moral authority to convince the larger populace on the findings of the investigation

The assassination highlighted the troubled road to democracy that Syria has been experiencing . The assassination showcased the gap between the Lebanese political factions and further polarized the political scene The division between the political classes grew owing to the some of the people supporting the government and the existing Lebanese /Syrian relationship . Street protests started with the people expressing their resentment at the continued presence of the Syrian army well within the Lebanese territory and the popular view that Syria had everything to do with the assassination of the former prime minister . The President knew that he would be able to win the confidence motion in Parliament but he choose to resign before the protestors reached Parliament

However the protests did not subside and instead there were demands of setting up a neutral government that could oversee the elections to the legislative assembly , an independent probe into the assassination of the former prime minister and the withdrawal of all Syrian forces . The Syrian President did respond and declared his government 's intention to withdraw its forces to the Beqa 'a and as well as further withdrawals up to the Syrian b . However , there were supporters of the present government who came on to the street . Some estimates suggest that more than half a million people came out on to the streets in support of the existing government . But all this did not go down well with the pro democracy activists who were demanding a full withdrawal of Syrian forces and a time plan under which this would be implemented . They were quick to point out that it would also be difficult for people to come out and vote if the current government and Syrian presence was maintained

Syria 's action in the post Rafik Hariri assassination has come under great scrutiny . There has been wide spread condemnation of the Syria 's attempt to meddle in the internal affairs of Lebanon . In fact several countries point out that Syria has been using Lebanon to get back at Israel which enjoys a broader influence in the Western word . Preliminary investigations point out responsibility of the Syrian government and pro Syrian sympathizers within the Lebanese establishment in the assassination

It is believed that Hariri was assassinated as he became a hindrance in Syria continuing to exert its influence over Lebanon . However the Syrian supporters say that Hariri was assassinated by friends of the international community who want to portray Syria in a bad light . They want the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon and maybe eventually would be interested in a regime change within Syria itself . Some observers say that Lebanon faces the risk of getting involved into a larger conflict between the Western World and Syria

But it is not new for Lebanon to get caught in a larger conflict whose roots lie beyond its bs . It has served a battleground for countries involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict . This led to communal strife within the country , threats to democracy and a civil war that led to widespread destruction over a period of 15 years . The civil war ended with physical reconstruction and rehabilitation gaining impetus . The area around capital Beirut did see visible signs of post civil war reconstruction but most part of Lebanon remained divided across community lines and long pending problems that were neglected during the civil war

Syrian military presence in Lebanon goes back to over three decades where with the permission of the Lebanese government Syrian forces set up base . It is after the withdrawal of Israeli forces from South Lebanon that the voices of dissent against Syria grew . People wanted Syria to withdraw its forces in conjunction with earlier agreements . However the Syrian government resisted and it would support in the form of the President Mr . Lahoud . However , Hariri did not see eye-to-eye with the President and it is widely believed that both of them had everyday spats on the issue which led to problems in day to day functioning of the government

Observers say that the Syrian government could not contemplate a scenario where it forced to withdraw and left to deal with Hariri who would further limit their influence in the internal matters of Lebanon Therefore it became imperative for the Syrian government to eliminate Hariri . However , the government might not have accounted for the widespread protests from the Lebanese people and the severe condemnation it received from the international community . There were growing fears now that polity might breakdown on account of the sustained pressure by Lebanon and the international community

The role of Iran in the post Hariri assassination period has to be closely linked to the changing dynamics within the Hamas organization Hamas in the past had setup base in Lebanon even though it primarily started as a guerilla resistance movement against Israel 's occupation of Palestine . Hamas has had an unexpected victory in the Palestinian Legislative elections . It has made an impression on the often turbulent political equation of the Middle East . While it is considered a terrorist organization by Israel and the Western world it is seen now even more credible form of opposition to Israel for other Arab countries . Hamas has been long funded by Iran . It was believed that the war in Iraq would lead to the restoration of American 's influence in Middle East . But with things not going to according to plan in Iraq and Iran 's growing resistance to international demands for nuclear inspection , Iran has refused to cut down on funding Hamas

Sunnis have long dominated the Iraqi life owing to the former dictator Saddam Hussein being one amongst them . However Shiites who form a majority in Iraq are long standing supporters of Iran . They would potentially back any move supported by Iran to gain predominance in the Iraqi society . In effect Iran could use the Shiite card against America in a war that America long thought it would win in a fortnight

After Hariri 's assassination , Syria has also had to come out in full support of Hamas . It had also tried to create solidarity by protesting against the Danish cartoon that showed Prophet Mohammed in poor light Saudi Arabia which is a western ally is seemed to be particular concerned about Iran 's growing influence in the region . Iran has started to brand its voice as the voice of Muslims and Islam . This was a position long held by the Saudi 's and it seems that they have not taken kindly to Iran becoming a threat in this arena . Saudi Arabia along with the Arab world and Egypt also want to prevent Hamas becoming a proxy for Iran . Hence they are also tacitly continuing to support Hamas even if they would have not wanted to do so otherwise . Turkey seen as a moderate Islamist state also could play a larger role in the post Hariri dynamics that have evolved in the Middle East . Turkey is also seen being close to America and the western world

Russia did not initially pay heed to stop assistance to Hamas and France also resisted America 's attempt to isolate Hamas . However , the US and EU came together to ensure that financial support to Hamas was restricted This has caused some problems for the Hamas leadership . However , there are geographical pockets of influence that Hamas has . However , Israel 's options with regards to Hamas have also been restricted . Israel does not recognize Hamas and Hamas in turn have never recognized the Israeli State . If Israel tries to destabilize the Hamas led government in Palestine then it might further increase the popularity of Hamas . Any military intervention would see Israel return to the Palestinian streets and fight a pitched battle with Hamas which Israel has never seen to been winning . Each small success has been met with deadly suicide bombings in Israel

Hezbollah the parent organization of the Hamas has had representation in the Lebanese government but it is seldom perceived to have worked for the unity of Lebanon . Instead it is seen to act at the behest of Damascus and Tehran which have considerable clout over Hezbollah 's ideology . It was perceived that Hamas would have to recognize the Israeli State after it assumed office in Palestine as any such move would be a precedent for talks with the Israeli authorities on the future of Palestine

However with the assassination of Hariri , Lebanon got plunged into a political vacuum . This is exactly what has played into the hands of the Hamas . It seems that the Hamas intervention in Lebanon and the ensuing conflict with Israel in 2006 was not a confrontation with Israel in itself but a larger move to deflect attention and energy from Iran 's standoff with America over the formers reluctance to allow inspectors of the international atomic energy to inspect Iran 's facilities . The kidnapping of Israeli soldier and killing of several others probably offset any demands for Hamas to recognize Israel . It also undermined Beirut 's march towards independence and the sidelining of Syria . It also helped deflect a lot of the international community 's attention from the Iran 's nuclear ambition . Hezbollah had its own compulsion in going ahead with such a plan

It is widely believed that Iran funds and supplies Hezbollah with arms and ammunition . Much of these supplies are routed through Syria and then reach Lebanon where of late Hezbollah has established its presence Though Israel had vacated its hold over South Lebanon , the Lebanese army had said that it is not prepared to occupy the territory and in fact Syria had encouraged Hezbollah to occupy the territory

Hamas and Iran along with Syria were perhaps going ahead with the precedent of 2004 when an Israeli businessman was kidnapped and later released when Israel agreed to swap him with more than 430 Arab prisoners it was holding . Earlier in 1985 , Israel had freed 1 ,150 prisoners were released by Israel in exchange for three soldiers captured by Lebanon . The latest kidnapping of Israel 's soldier was a well planned operation but it backfired as Israel reacted strongly and a full blown military operation was launched by Israel to free its soldier

However post Hariri 's assassination one organization that is at cross roads in determining what amount of support it wants to extend to Hamas is the Fatah faction . Fatah has been the political voice of Palestine and controls the security apparatus . Fatah can refuse to cooperate with Hamas and make the latter 's life difficult in participating in the government . But it is believed that even if Fatah decides to roadblock Hama 's move forward , observers believe that Hamas can still live on due to the widespread divisions that have appeared in the Fatah ranks . A number of low ranking officials of Fatah have been known to have voted for the Hamas candidates in the run up to the Palestine legislative elections

Whereas Fatah gained prominence after starting to self rule since 1993 it has been marred by corruption and inefficient rule . The primary failure has been due to the monopolization of the armed forces and Fatah 's absolute control over the same . Whereas the Hamas movement gained popularity by their guerilla views and also being a partner in the welfare of the Palestine people

However , it seems that Hariri 's assassination opened the flood gates and focused attention on the regional influences on Lebanon . A lot of regional powers with differing reasons for interest were suddenly more active in re-establishing their supremacy . A status quo which maintained prior to Hariri 's death was broken and a new round of gaining supremacy began . The focus of attention this time was not just the role of Syria in Lebanon but the growing rise of Hamas in Palestine and the tough posture that Iran has maintained against the western world

Reference

Killing Mr Lebanon : The Assassination of Rafik Hariri and Its Impact on the Middle East , by Nicholas Blanford , Published 2006 I . B . Tauris

Human Rights Watch World Report 2007 , By Human Rights Watch http /hrw .org /wr2k7 PAGE

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