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Paper Topic:

what is judgmental forecasting? discuss ite relative advantage and disadvantage as a method of forecasting.

Relative Advantages and Disadvantages in Judgmental Forecasting

In fields as varied as psychology , economics , and even political science , there is often a profound need to know the future . For obvious reasons , one cannot know the exact events at any given time in the future , but one may , within reason , venture an educated guess as to what events are most likely . In recent years , the role of forecasting has become particularly important as pressures increasingly create the need for improved forecast accuracy

It seems to foolhardy to simply say that a guess is

worth all the time and effort a person may put into something which may or may not happen However , through the use of different means of forecasting , many of the aforementioned fields have been capable of a high degree of prediction and have been able to successfully prepare for whatever probabilities they may have found

Arguably , the most flexible of these methods is judgmental forecasting Though inferior in many ways to the inherent precision in mathematical modelling , it is theless a vital way that many , if not most , of today 's economists and marketers have come to rely on quite heavily Obviously , these individuals have developed their own specific scientific methods

What 's more is that , to look at them separately , one would be hard-pressed to find any similarities at all between the different applications of judgmental forecasting . Data collection , analyses , and of course the sources of such information- all are as varied as the application of the method itself . theless , each of these fields has successfully and repeatedly forecasted future events

For the purposes of this essay , we must first define `judgmental forecasting ' in to come to any sort of definite conclusion about its usefulness . Judgmental forecasting is defined as a subjective integration of information to produce a forecast ' This is to say that while it may use finite , factual information , the integration of such is solely at the discretion of the researcher , or forecaster . If a researcher chooses to use this method , it could mean several things . On the one hand , it could mean that relevant quantitative data may not be available . On the other hand , it could simply mean that the qualitative data available are more practically applicable

Other forms of forecasting , be it mathematical modelling or analogue simulation , tend to take a typically more rigid approach to their structuring . Judgmental forecasting is a more ambiguous means of data extrapolation . Being a subjective form of research , the methods therein range from highly and meticulously structured , to having little or no structure at all

To fully satisfy the question of judgmental forecasting and its relative benefits and drawbacks , we must also define another form of forecasting : statistical forecasting . Statistical forecasting is a method in which numerical data are readily available , and all predictions are based on various means of application of such data Wherein judgmental forecasting uses such elements as `expert opinions and `game theory , statistical forecasting uses extrapolation models and other objective forms of...

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