basketball data analysis

1 TITLE PAGE

A MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE WINNING CHANCE OF A BASKETBALL TEAM

AUTHORS

DATE

2 EXECITIVE SUMMARY

A streak is a short period of good or bad luck . A team is said to have a winning streak when it wins many games consecutively , and to have a loosing streak when it looses many matches in a row . It is quite easy to say that a team has good players , and therefore has a high chance of winning . Upon closer consideration , though , it may become apparent that

br the skill and style of play of the teams playing against them has an important part to play , and so are other factors like coaching and the spirit in the players

In this work , we have considered some variables that appear likely to influence the team 's chance of winning . Specifically , we chose opponent 3-points per game , team 3-points per game , team free throws per game team turnovers per game , opponent turnovers per game , team rebounds per game and opponent rebounds per game as key determining variables in determining the winning chance of a basketball team . We had to deal with the occurrence unusually large or small values in the data , since they affect the final outcome . Therefore we formed a multiple regression model for prediction , and modified it until we came up with a model with six variables . Our model can be trusted to predict the chance of a team winning by up to 80 , and the percentage win can be predicted with an error margin 0 .1479 percentage points about 95 of the time

Our model showed us that the more turnovers a team has and the more rebounds from an opponent , the less the chance of winning . However , the more 3-point shots , free throws and rebounds made , and the more turnovers an opponent makes , the greater a team 's chance of winning .3 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive summary 2

Objective of the study 4

Data 5

Technical report 6 - 12

Conclusion and managerial implications 14

Appendices

Appendix I : Descriptive statistics for the variables 15

Appendix II : Box plots for the variables 16

Appendix III : Scatter plots , winning chance vs . each variable 17

Appendix IV : Multiple regression details for 8-variable model 20

Appendix V : Residual plots for the 8 variables 21

Appendix VI : Best subsets regression details 23

Appendix VII : Regression details for 5-variable model 24

Appendix VIII : Residual Plots for 5 variables 26

Appendix IX : Regression excluding residual outliers for 5-variable model 28

Appendix X : Regression for 6-variable model 29

Appendix XI : Residual plots for 6-variable model 30

Appendix XII (a ) The final regression model 32

Appendix XII (b ) Residual plots for the final regression model 33

4 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

The objective of his study is to create a regression model for predicting the percentage wining of a basketball team among many basketball teams in a particular basketball season . Regression analysis is a method that aids us in predicting the outcome of a variable...