Unint 4 DB

Unint 4 DB

Based on the situations comprising the Unit 4 Activity , the relevant decision concepts pertaining to each circumstance were identified . In the first activity , the principle of the overconfidence of the correlations that can be made between confidence and accuracy was identified to be in use . This activity notifies us on the perspective of the overconfidence and the idea that the confidence levels does not exceed accuracy by more than ten to twenty percent ADDIN EN .CITE Plous19931 16Plous , S The psychology of judgment decision making1993New

br YorkMcGraw Hill (Plous , 1993 One cannot be accountable of overconfidence and did not fall into the said category by rating the confidence level higher than the accuracy level . The majority of respondents given the same scenarios could not distinguish between the two Superpowers . Additionally , their confidence ratings were virtually unrelated to their accuracy (Plous , 1993

The second situations , on the other hand , used the principle of the extreme confidence . As stated in the text , the respondents who conveyed a 100 confident with their answers got only 70-85 correct ADDIN EN .CITE Plous19931 16Plous , S The psychology of judgment decision making1993New YorkMcGraw Hill (Plous , 1993 In this case , it was realized that having extreme confidence tend to blocked the thought process from looking at the other alternative solutions to the problems . A decision maker is perfectly calibrated when , across all judgments at a given level of confidence , the proportion of accurate judgments is identical to the expected probability of being correct . When individual judgments , such as this one , are considered alone , we cannot adequately measure "calibration The only way to validly assess calibration is by comparing accuracy and confidence across hundreds of judgments . Thus , one should take more time to think all the alternatives before declaring extreme confidence

The third activity was an example of the confirmation bias which usually refers to a preference for information that is consistent with a theory or assumption rather than information that opposes it (Plous , 1993 . The theory of if a vowel , then even number ' is being tested in this activity . To prove this assumption as false , one had to find an instance where if a vowel , then an odd number . Respondents were asked which card that would minimally need to turn over to decide whether the assumption was false . Many chose to turn over cards that confirmed the theory , thus using confirmation bias in the decision making . Also several respondents based their decision on distinctiveness on the structure of the path to identify more path structure , thus succumbing to bias through the availability heuristic

The investment trap was applied on the fourth activity wherein these occur when prior expenditures of time , money , or resources lead people to make choices they would not otherwise make (Plous , 1993 . This activity asked people to decide whether or not to invest the last 10 percent of research funds into finishing the company 's radar plan in light of a competitive offering of the same product that is faster and cheaper...