Systems Thinking

RUNNING HEAD : Systems Thinking

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Accuracy of Forrester 's world model in predicting the last 35 years

Forrester 's world growth model entails various variables that affect the world growth . These include world population , pollution , non- renewable natural resources , capital investment of the world , and agricultural sector amount of investment percentage (Dr . Franzois E . Cellier , 2007 The world population is reaching its growth limit while pollution is changing the world 's ecological system . Capital investment has increased but

it has brought with it increased pollution . Food is a basic requirement for human lives and so agricultural investment needs to be increased so as to provide more food . Natural resources are needed to sustain the other variables but they are finite

The model forecasted that fossil fuel exhaustion will have a dramatic impact on the world growth and this is evident today . People continue to invest hugely leading to increased wealth thus significant pollution increase . Agricultural sector has been , and still is , the leading industry in provision of food for the world thus many governments and people have resorted to invest more available investment into the sector to increase food production . The five variables of the model have been assigned single inflow and outflow with an exception of natural resources which are normally depleted

The model postulates direct proportional rate between birth rate and population increase . To make positive forecasts to world growth Forrester made an assumption that correlates the model to actuality . He represents the multi-valued functions with derivation from single- valued functions . He also took the 1970 values for all variables and causal factors as `normal ' and thus developing the functions as deviations form the `norm (Dr . Franzois E . Cellier , 2007 . The relationships of variables are postulated in the model so as to give actuality predictions

Examples of such relationships are birth rates in developing countries (which have low living standards ) as being high than those of developed countries (which have high living standards . The model of Forrester predicted an overshoot and then collapse of world growth and thus recommended that if no new ways are developed to slow or control growth rate , then the forces of natural and social growth will rise to limit the growth . The predictions were that the growth will reach its equilibrium in the 21st century and then start declining

Population growth at the current state is said to be growing in a demographic manner and will soon reach its climax but the forecasts by Forrester are too large . The projected decline and possible decrease in growth of population and industrial output is due to the depletion that was predicted of the non- renewable natural resources . Some depletion in the natural resources is being observed now such as oil problems which justify Forrester 's forecasts but no considerable accuracy (Richard C Duncan , 2000 . Therefore continued depletion and possible running out of the resources is not accurate

Capital investment has been growing at an increasing rate but not...