The National Intelligence Estimates Process: Telling Truth to Power

The Intelligence Estimate Process

Part I

In the purview of national security , there exists a relationship between the intelligence analysts (particularly those who belong to the Central Intelligence Agency [CIA] ) who keep tabs with what is going on in and around the world , to see how it could affect the state , and the policymakers who makes (foreign ) policies based on the assessments of these analysts . Their relationship or partnership is key to safeguarding the interests and security of the nation , in this case , the United States . By way of analogy , their

relationship may be likened to the the shepherd boy in the well-known fable of Aesop titled , The Boy Who Cried 'Wolf ' where the analysts are the shepherds and the villagers represent the policymakers . The like the character in the fable , the duty of the analysts , as stated above , is to see to the security of the state by watching for signs and issue the corresponding warnings to the the policymakers who will respond accordingly whether it may be in the form of economic sanctions or military intervention , the most extreme response to be employed

According to Sherman Kent , there are times when this relationship is strained although ideally they must be cordial . He cited several flaws ' in this relationship which he categorized in two forms - the Warning Analysis ' and the Intentions Analysis ' Before discussing the flaws or weaknesses , both processes do have its strengths and these lie in the relationship . The close working relationship between the analysts and the...