Master of Technology

Master of Technology Essay

Expert Opinion versus Trend Analysis

In technological forecasting , two methods used are expert opinion and trend analysis . Expert opinion relies on getting a team of experts and culling their opinions about the subject until their opinion converges to a consistent forecast . Trend analysis on the other hand makes its forecast by gathering large information about the subject and then spotting a trend or pattern

With trend analysis , you get an idea of where the industry is heading You will get to understand both drivers and roadblocks of

demand by looking at which segments of the market are spending the most in a given technology . By seeing the trend of technology development , the manager can plan for developing the technology needed as shown by the trend in the data . Also , in comparing and analyzing data , the forecaster can compare the performance of his or her company as compared to the industry

One limit of trend analysis is that it is technology transparent . The manager might not see that it is technical problems which are restricting the development of a product . The disparity in performance of company A versus company B might not be due to market forces and management but because of the differences in proprietary technologies and methodologies that the two companies employ . Also , while trend analysis might show the manager which way to go , it doesn 't tell the manager the easiest path to get there

These pitfalls are the advantages of expert opinion . Experts in relevant fields can help explain the hidden underbellies of the trends and data For example , an expert might be able to tell you that it is not poor marketing or supply chain management that is hindering company C but rather it is the failure of their processes to scale up to the demand Also , while trends will tell you where the market is heading , the experts with their intimate knowledge of technology development can help you steer the market to make the most of developed technology

An example would be Nintendo in the latest round of game console releases . The trend for the past few generations was to make the latest consoles faster and with better graphics . Microsoft and Sony did exactly that with their XBOX 360 and PlayStation 3 offerings which were graphics goliaths compared to their previous incarnations . Nintendo did the exact opposite by releasing the Wii which while having marginally better graphics than Nintendo 's previous offerings were nowhere as powerful as its competition . However , Nintendo did not simply break from the trend they steered it towards another direction - usability . Utilizing Nintendo 's in house motion sensing technology instead of making the Wii more powerful than its predecessor , they made it easier to use . By doing so they opened up the untapped markets of girls and the elderly , markets which are alien to the gaming industry . All this was possible because Nintendo broke from the trend and focused on exploiting exclusive in-house technology

However , the downside...