`J-curve` theory

Running Head : J-Curve Theory

The J-Curve Theory

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The J-Curve Theory

James C . Davies (1962 , a scholar studying the root causes of revolution , developed the J-Curve theory . The latter is the illustration of his hypothesis that revolutions are likely to occur when a prolonged period of objective economic and social development is followed by a short period of sharp reversal (Mason , 2004 . Simply put , a prolonged period of social and economic development increases people 's expectations of material wellbeing . When a crisis

such as a war brings about a sharp reversal in the level of achievement , popular expectations do not adjust to the latter . The gap between expectations and achievement may widen to the point that frustration , and , later aggression will ensue

When frustration is shared by the members of a given society aggression will manifest itself through collective violence (Mason 2004 . Aggression , however , crystallizes into revolution (Mason , 2004 when frustration is directed towards the government . Shared frustration over the government 's inability to reverse declining levels of satisfaction brings about a politicized form of aggression . This politicized form of aggression is no other than revolution

But one limitation of the J-Curve theory is that it operates on the idealistic premise that the government has the capacity to keep up with the rising expectations of its citizens (Glantz , 2006 . In reality , no government can ever do that . Furthermore , a decline in the achievements of the government would also prompt the people to expect less from...