The Demographic Explosion

THE DEMOGRAPHIC EXPLOSION

The Demographic Explosion

In Demographic explosion , Paul Kennedy analyzes social , economic and strategic consequences of demographic changes taking place through the world . Kennedy contends that the disproportionate population growth experienced mainly by under developed and developing African and Asian countries and by developed Western societies has created the foundation of an unprecedented future crisis The increasing economic disparity and an ever burgeoning human population requires to be supported and provided with same limited and in fact rather diminishing natural resources threatens the world security and well being

of humanity . The main hypothesis of the article is that continuous and rapid population growth is economically untenable and resource wise unsupportable

While searching for the reasons and patterns associated with the population explosion in western society through the time of industrial revolution , Kennedy also puts great emphasis on the fact that most of present and expected future growth shall occur in world 's underdeveloped , or less developed countries that are relatively ill equipped to provide basic acceptable living conditions , such as food shelter , education , health facilities and jobs to even their present teeming hundreds of million people . Hence these countries would find it beyond their capacity in meeting demands of additional millions of hungry mouths causing misery , pain , deprivation , conflict , unrest and chaos in such societies . The article also creates an impression that developed countries , with their negative population growth , decreasing fertility rate and an aging population structure may see a great influx of immigrants from over populated developing world , causing great social , cultural and demographic change around the world

Kennedy scans through an overwhelming amount of data , statistical figures and information from various reputed organizations and agencies such as United Nations , OECD and IPCC , and also analyzes economic and socio-cultural impact theories of population growth to support his views on dangers associated with disproportionate population growth (p-18-25 p-31 . The article systematically reviews the historical pattern of population growth in industrial Britain and Europe , migration of Europeans to other parts of world and the consequences of the demographic transition this migration brought forth (p-17-19 . Kennedy argues that present day Africa and many countries of Asia are experiencing same industrial and economic conditions that Europe experienced almost a century before and hence their demographic expansion would follow exactly same pattern , causing world population to reach 8-10 billion by year 2025 (p 18-20

For the contemporary world , Kennedy offers factual information on significant nations as U .S , China , India , Brazil , Mexico and many African countries related to their population figures , growth rate infant mortality rate , poverty rate , population density and degree of urbanization in context of their social , religious and economic states (p19-21 . He then compares these countries in detail with each other , as well with themselves in past and future time frames to establish the point that world has almost reached its capacity to support the impact of human population . In this respect Kennedy refers to the high degree of environmental and resource stress caused by an over-consumptive Western society...