`Fooled by Randomness` (Nassim Taleb)

When people buy stocks , they generally buy thinking they are investing through their skillful assumptions , and when the stock price decreases still they think it is due to their lack of knowledge or their lack of capability to perceive market situation but here there assumption is wrong because it is all due to the luck . If their stock goes down , it is because of the luck and if it goes up , it is also because of luck Activities of financial experts like performing research work , observing market position , analyzing happenings and key elements

in the market is nothing except what James K Glassman , NRO Financial contributor said `wheel spinning (Glassman , Online ) Financial experts are merely spinning and spinning wheel but without coming at accurate assumptions

Taleb explains this concept by giving example of monkeys who are made to sit in the front of typewriter making them to learn typing . We can be quite certain of the fact that one of the monkey will sure start typing This is certainty and we are sure that one of the monkeys can produce the result but the question here arises whether anyone will invest with the assumption that monkeys will type . Point is quite clear expectations about future course of events cannot be made by the past assumptions but paradoxically many of the investors make future assumptions based on these past experiences only . Here Taleb argues that relying on assumptions of the investment advisors , managers of the mutual fund , experts contributing in the newss coloumn or even in the markets is not a valuable proposition . People are fooled into thinking that whatever is happening in the market by random is in reality happening on account of the presumptions of market designers . In reality , analysts themselves fail to analyze random events and make predictions...